The 43rd Ockham Lecture - 'Equations and Equality: Physics, People, and Power in a Changing Climate'

To be given by Professor Myles Allen CBE FRS

The Lecturer will be introduced by the Vice-Chancellor, Prof Irene Tracey CBE FRS FMedSci

Abstract

On the walls of the RER-B station in the Gare du Nord there are some equations, inspired by Suki Manabe's papers from the 1960s, that purport to be "the logical basis for understanding" the greenhouse effect and climate change. I think you are meant to gaze at them and be convinced. I don't think they work. But, as physicists, how should we explain what we do to people who feel excluded and threatened by the very tools of our trade? When I was an undergraduate (PhysPhil, 1984-87), physicists had a straightforward reply to anyone questioning their authority, expressable in Megatonnes of TNT. Inspired by this success, the 20th century saw physicists and physicists' way of thinking permeate everywhere from economics to epidemiology. But in an age of pandemics and global warming, that authority is on the wane. People no longer meekly obey when told to "lockdown" or "reduce emissions by 45%" because our mathematical models say they should. I have spent much of my career trying to translate physics into the legal jargon of IPCC reports. But perhaps the solution is not less physics, but more. How can we make our quantitative reasoning accessible to all, so people can make up their own minds, informed not just by authority, but by genuine understanding? What climate equations would I put on the wall of RER-B?

The Ockham Lecture Series

The Merton College Physics Lecture (the Ockham, or Occam, Lecture, so named in honour of one of the greatest—if unattested—alumni of the College and of his philosophical principle of intellectual discipline) started in 2009 and is held once a term. It is organised by the physics tutors of the College to promote both intellectual curiosity and social cohesion of the Merton Physics community.

Attendance is by invitation: All Merton physicists (and sympathisers) belonging to the three Common Rooms (JCR, MCR and SCR) are invited, as are the Old Members. Their guests are also accommodated, space permitting. To sign up, please visit the Ockham Lecture Facebook page.